The Black Swan Theory Of Nassim Taleb
The pandemic. Brexit. The social crisis in the United States. Terrorist attacks. The impact of technology on our lives. Nassim Taleb includes many of these phenomena that have undoubtedly altered our personal, psychological, economic and political equilibrium in his Black Swan Theory.
Indeed, there is no lack of voices to emphasize that we are passing through an era marked by this metaphor. Emphasizing that we live in an era marked by unpredictability is little more than the obvious.
Even if it is true that crises are a constant in the course of time and in the personal existence of each one of us, we are never prepared for their arrival. They disturb us. They surprise us and make us lose our balance. These are dynamics that nobody likes to see appearing out of nowhere.
Because if there is one thing that human beings tend to cling to, it is stability. The brain doesn’t like change, uncertainty, and anything that sounds unexpectedly.
This is probably why we tend to settle into a routine. We like to take this routine for granted. It is even believed that the stability of today will continue tomorrow. We rarely leave room for chaos, for the possibility of disaster, for the onset of 180 ° change.
Personalities such as Nassim Taleb encourage us to be aware of this. The unexpected is always around the corner and we must prepare for it.
What does Nassim Taleb’s black swan theory consist of?
When you read the term “black swan”, you may immediately think of a psychological thriller like Natalie Portman’s eponymous 2010 film. It is actually a term every expert in economic risk has in mind. in his daily work.
The black swan theory was introduced by the Lebanese essayist Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book The Black Swan: The Power of the Unpredictable , published in 2008. The principle of his theory is quite simple.
The world can be greatly affected by rare and difficult to predict events. To support this, it relies heavily on the world of markets and economic investments.
However, since the publication of his work, his theory seems to apply to many other fields given its impact and usefulness. Because if there is one thing that we cannot deny, it is that everyday life is marked by these events which happen by surprise.
Both major public events and those in the private and personal sphere are marked by these events which sometimes overthrow us, which shake the ground under our feet and before which we do not always have the resources to face. Let us now analyze the components that define Nassim Taleb’s theory of the black swan.
Events with a low probability of occurring
Obviously, a lot of the things that happened were possible. However, (almost) no one saw them coming. At the very least, they were given a very low probability of occurrence and even less of immediacy.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb formulated this theory based on the experience of 17th century explorers when they arrived in Australia. Until then, it was taken for granted that all swans in the wild were white. However, when they arrived in Australia, they discovered the existence of black swans.
Since then, we have all known that there are black swans, but we usually don’t imagine ever seeing one. The same happens with adversity, crises and disasters. We assume that they can happen, but we do not envision them for tomorrow or even the day after tomorrow.
These events, according to Nassim Taleb, have a great impact
When a black swan appears, everything changes. Its appearance shakes up almost all scenarios. Whether they are social, economic, political and even cultural. Everything is changed. The waves produced by its impact reach almost all areas of our reality. We are often caught off guard, without resources and without a clear capacity for adaptation.
Retrospective predictability
This fact is striking and is no doubt well known to many of us. Once this event, this crisis, this worrying and unforeseen situation has occurred, the voices of experts (and less experts) are heard showing evidence that this event was imminent.
Worse yet, they claim it could have been avoided. This is when we begin to assign responsibilities.
Black swans have always existed
Epidemiologists have been warning of the emergence of new pandemics for many years. The scientific community therefore does not view the current crisis as an expression of the black swan theory. The same goes for events like Brexit, the rise of terrorism or the way technology is changing our lives.
It is true that there are events that unfold in completely unpredictable ways. Events that do not fall under any probability calculation. However, there are mechanisms and realities which, far from being highly improbable, provide us with clues in everyday life and point to their possible occurrence.
While it is true that many of the events that have happened in recent times (and will continue to happen) cannot be avoided, we should still be prepared to face them. We must at least prepare ourselves mentally.
You have to accept that the world is unpredictable and thus allow yourself to face adversity a little better. This process is not an easy task, but it is a mechanism that we can all implement. This would undoubtedly allow us to navigate much better in a time when black swans appear more frequently in our reality.
Our thoughts The butterfly effect is the essence of chaos theory, a law enunciated by James Yorke that reminds us of something essential.
